Preface for Western readers
This book was originally published in Russia in late 2001 under my journalistic pen name of Oleg Arin. I then decided to publish it in English, for two reasons. To begin with, the book’s topics are as much of interest to the West as they are to Russia; and second, I wanted the Western reader to get a more realistic perspective on Russia’s place and role in the world. The latter is particularly important, considering that academic and especially popular literature in the West often presents a distorted picture of Russia; in particular, it tends to exaggerate the achievements of “democratic reforms” in this country.
In this book I cast doubt on the great power status claimed for Russia. Moreover, I was compelled to prove, by drawing on a vast body of material, that Russia has altogether lost the capacity of being a structure-forming subject of international relations. In the process, I uncovered the contradiction between Russia’s actual potential and the official foreign policy objectives formulated by Moscow. The book also contains criticism of Russian politicians and scholars of all persuasions, but especially those who rely on wishful thinking rather than facts in their research and prognoses. I label such personages “if-only-ists.” Some Western scholars, Americans for the most part, also come in for their share of criticism, even though the quality of their analyses depends on more rigorous standards of research than do the works of Russian political scientists.
In this book, I formulate, among other things, the laws of “poles,” of “centers of power,” and of “power” and introduce new concepts in the theory of international relations (a state’s foreign policy potential and the law of optimal proportion between expenditures on domestic and foreign policy).
On almost all issues raised, my views differ from the generally accepted interpretations and approaches prevalent both in the West and in the East.
I want to draw the readers’ attention to the fact that although I am a Canadian citizen, I wrote this book from the perspective of a Russian (I am Russian by birth) concerned about Russia’s destiny. I have spent most of my life in Russia, worked in its most prestigious scientific centers and schools, and traveled all over the country, rubbing shoulders with both those who govern Russia “from the top” and those who suffer their misrule “below.” I am, therefore, free of the illusions entertained by some western scholars and politicians about Russia.
In my opinion, this book should be of interest not only to instructors and students of international affairs but also to all those who are interested in the theory of international relations and the foreign policies of the world’s leading powers.
January 2002
The 21st Century: The World Without Russia
(Philosophical-sociological Essay)